When I first moved to Los Angeles, I lived in a five story apartment building in the Miracle Mile district near Hauser and Wilshire. While I'm a fan of the big city and urban living it was definitely an adjustment when I came here in early 1996 from Tucson. After I made the adjustment to the tight spaces in the city I started to look around to find something close enough to the city but a little more spacious. And that, my friends, is exactly the kind of reasoning that sends so many like myself into the San Fernando Valley.
The idea is that you're paying less for more and you're still close enough to catch a baseball game at Dodger Stadium or a concert at Staples. Now, not long ago I mused about the completion of The Montecito in Warner Center. This new ultra luxurious development will add to the literally thousands of new condos, apartments and townhomes being made available in the area. The number - according to an article published today in the L.A. Times - is far greater than I originally thought and not exactly limited to The Valley:
"But over the last six years, Los Angeles has approved more than 14,000 condos and apartments for construction in the San Fernando Valley, according to city records, nearly three times the number of single-family residences.
It's a trend that is mirrored throughout the region, and it is expected to intensify as Southern California stretches to accommodate a crush of 6.3 million new residents over the next 30 years.
So many new apartments will be built that by 2035, the number of multi-family dwellings under construction will outstrip the number of single-family residences two to one, according to projections by the Southern California Assn. of Governments."
- from "Southern California is becoming a tight fit" by Sharon Bernstein
So it's a SoCal trend and not just a West Valley issue. And as someone who enjoys the Warner Center vibe on all months not falling in the summer, I've got to say I get why they're stacking them on top of each other at least in this area. The truth is that most first time buyers (like myself) simply can't get together the bread for a $850k single family. Your best bet is to buy in a solid area (good schools, nice area, shopping and stores nearby) and Warner Center is absolutely that. The idea is to hang on long enough that you build some equity so that when you sell you can perhaps use the appreciation for a down payment on another property - a single family home - down the road.
But this L.A. Times article makes that sound like that plan may become a dim - if not completely - hopeless prospect in the relatively short run. Friends who still live in the Miracle Mile area have told me that huge condo projects are going up right next to the gorgeous - and pricey - single family homes in that area. Another point made in the article:
"The shift is starkly obvious in Los Angeles County, where 60% of residences built in 1993 were single-family. Last year in the county, 38% of residential construction was single-family and 62% was apartments and condos.
The increase in apartment and condominium dwellings will dramatically reshape the way people live in Southern California, heralding an era of increasing urbanization for residents used to suburbia."
I suppose - in the backs of our minds - many of us who've been here ten years or more knew this day was coming. This provokes so many questions. How will the under-funded and over-crowded public schools accomodate the increase in populations in their areas? How will roads accomodate the increase in traffic? Can public transit even hope to keep up with this great of an increase in population? And how will it change the face of the city if families, couples and singles who want single family homes keep pushing West to Calabasas and beyond? Most importantly, as single family dwellings become more and more rare when does the gap between their median price and the media price of a condo become too much of a jump for a middle class person to ever hope to jump?
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